The Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts
Abstract:
This project exploits the spatial and temporal variation of city-year temperature forecast accuracies in China and estimates the differential temperature forecast responses of labor hours under varying qualities of the weather forecasts. My main results show that the availability of more accurate weather forecasts leads to more significant avoidance behaviors under unpleasant weathers, such as cutting labor hours under extreme heat. With a preliminary welfare maximization framework, the value of weather forecast quality improvement over the years is estimated to be well above the cost of investing in the forecasting system in China. As extreme weather events are expected with greater frequency under climate change into the future, this work could provide implications on further developing better weather and climate forecasts that can create large social benefits to billions of people in China.
Natural Disasters and Firm Behavior in the United States
Abstract:
I combine county-level establishment data from the Census and FRED with detailed spatial data on hurricane tracks and intensities to study the effect of natural disaster shocks on establishments in the United States. I specifically look at establishment entry and exit, and whether these effects vary by firm size. In the future, I hope to understand the effects of changing firm composition on consumer welfare and choice.